higher crime rate associated with higher densities

[John Zeger]

Some are suggesting that the solution to Kelowna's crime problem is to increase residential densities. Well, that would be like jumping from the frying pan into the fire as both property crime and violent crime are strongly correlated with population density, and we don't even have to go beyond the Province of British Columbia for empirical evidence.

The Vancouver Board of Trade reported in October 2003 that Vancouver is the second worst city in North America for property crime. "A year-long study by The Vancouver Board of Trade says Greater Vancouver is proportionally the worst metropolitan area in Canada for property crime, thanks in part to a serious problem of drug addiction, insufficient numbers of police, weak sentencing for repeat offenders and inadequate funding for treatment of drug addicts. The Report on Property Crime in Vancouver places Vancouver second only to Miami in North America when it comes to property crime." Among the key recommendations for alleviating the problem, there is no mention of further increasing residential densities. Read the full news release at www.boardoftrade.com/vbot_page.asp?pageid=1065

Violent crime is also strongly associated with population density in British Columbia. In the study "Demographic Correlates of Violent Crime in British Columbia, Canada 2001, J. F. Phillips cites a 0.680 correlation coefficient (l.0 being a perfect positive correlation, 0 being no correlation, and -1.0 being a perfect negative correlation) between crime and population density. Phillips says, "The four cities that had ... the highest crime rates were the cities with the highest population densities: New Westminster, Vancouver, Esquimalt, and Victoria."

Statistics Canada reports the following population densities for selected cities in British Columbia:


(population density as
population per sq. km.)

Kelowna 944

Victoria 1062

Vancouver 1634

So why then is Kelowna city council and planning department using Vancouver as a planning model for Kelowna?

[John Zeger]

The Sunday Okanagan (June 19, 2005) contains an article "Many reasons for Edmonton's high murder rate." The article goes on to say "What do Edmonton and New York City have in common? A high murder rate. ... All of this could be a consequence of the rapid changes Edmonton has seen over the past decade, said Keith Spencer, a criminology professor at the University of Alberta. ... Those changes include demographics." Spencer goes on to identify the role that that a transient population and the presence of a flourishing drug trade has on the increase in violent crimes.

Kelowna can learn from Edmonton as an example of a city it wants to avoid becoming rather than a city it is moving towards becoming with its rapid population growth, unstable demographics, and a growing drug trade. Some of the solutions are to decrease our population growth rate and to create a stable community with the family as its basic unit. We must also get tougher with the transient population here which is often involved in drug use and drug-related crime.

[John Zeger]

More on the original post on crime and population density in B.C. It seems that three of the cities identified as being the highest in crime in B.C. (Vancouver, Victoria, and New Westminster) are also highly rated by Smart Growth B.C. in their Sprawl Report 2004. Smart Growth B.C. ranks Vancouver lst, Victoria 2nd, and New Westminster 4th among 24 communities on its Overall Smart Growth Index and praises the efforts of these cities. There obviously, then, is as association between "smart growth" and crime and the association is density. Given the evidence, how smart is "smart growth" really if among other things it will lead to an increase in crime?