Post by Rick Shea on Aug 15, 2005 10:34:55 GMT -5
Prompted by a letter to the editor at Castanet.net about the "post carbon" movement, and a news item about fuel shortages and long line-ups in China, I did a bit of digging into the "peak oil" issue and ran across a title of a book by Richard Heinberg ("Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World"),
The link provided below contains an excellent summary of the issues, and shows how one small town in California is preparing for what some claim is inevitable. In particular, I point to the following quotations in that article:
Peakocalypse Now
Put simply, peak oil theory states that we've already burned through half the oil that ever existed. Competition for what remains will turn increasingly vicious as the supply dwindles, as we are already witnessing with higher prices at the gas pump and the increasing number of casualties in the Middle East, where the world's largest remaining oil reserves are located. At the current rate of consumption, some experts estimate that the remaining supply will be exhausted by 2042. When that happens, the world as we know it will certainly change and perhaps perish. Many experts are convinced that if we don't start conserving now, the end of oil may come even sooner.
and...
The consensus among peak oil experts is that the reduction in oil will translate into an enormous fall in global population, perhaps as much as an 80 percent decrease. (Keep in mind that cheap petroleum permeates the global economy, from transportation to manufacturing to agriculture to medicine.)
Meanwhile, we continue on with our heads buried firmly in our, er, sand.
www.postcarbon.org/node/479 at
www.postcarbon.org/
I managed to find a copy of Heinberg's book in Kelowna, so I'll give an update once I'm done reading it. Personally, I believe that our rapid rate of consumption of fossil fuels, the negative impact of that consumption, and the fact that there is a finite supply, are undeniably of concern. I also believe that we do not seem to be developing alternatives quickly enough, and that global economic collapse is one of the possible consequences of inaction...even within my own lifetime.
The news item about China is located at www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Metro/GH12Ak04.html Although it attributes part of the shortage to weather conditions, the article goes on to talk about longer term issues. It certainly shows how dependent China has become on oil.
The link provided below contains an excellent summary of the issues, and shows how one small town in California is preparing for what some claim is inevitable. In particular, I point to the following quotations in that article:
Peakocalypse Now
Put simply, peak oil theory states that we've already burned through half the oil that ever existed. Competition for what remains will turn increasingly vicious as the supply dwindles, as we are already witnessing with higher prices at the gas pump and the increasing number of casualties in the Middle East, where the world's largest remaining oil reserves are located. At the current rate of consumption, some experts estimate that the remaining supply will be exhausted by 2042. When that happens, the world as we know it will certainly change and perhaps perish. Many experts are convinced that if we don't start conserving now, the end of oil may come even sooner.
and...
The consensus among peak oil experts is that the reduction in oil will translate into an enormous fall in global population, perhaps as much as an 80 percent decrease. (Keep in mind that cheap petroleum permeates the global economy, from transportation to manufacturing to agriculture to medicine.)
Meanwhile, we continue on with our heads buried firmly in our, er, sand.
www.postcarbon.org/node/479 at
www.postcarbon.org/
I managed to find a copy of Heinberg's book in Kelowna, so I'll give an update once I'm done reading it. Personally, I believe that our rapid rate of consumption of fossil fuels, the negative impact of that consumption, and the fact that there is a finite supply, are undeniably of concern. I also believe that we do not seem to be developing alternatives quickly enough, and that global economic collapse is one of the possible consequences of inaction...even within my own lifetime.
The news item about China is located at www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Metro/GH12Ak04.html Although it attributes part of the shortage to weather conditions, the article goes on to talk about longer term issues. It certainly shows how dependent China has become on oil.